Warmest January On Record

Winters in Montana are typically known for being, well, white. High levels of snowfall and cold temperatures create the conditions that nearly half a million tourists travel to experience annually. But this year, the landscape looks a little different. Record-breaking warmth across December and January has left farmers and ranchers cautiously navigating a season that feels more like early spring than mid-winter. Producers on the western half of the state are observing changes in not only their day-to-day operations, but how the plants, animals, and land in their care are responding to the unusual temperatures. While some welcome the relief from our harsh climate, responses are mixed with real concern and an awareness of the long-term consequences warm winter temperature fluctuations could bring.

For some producers, the most visible impact of the warm January has been below their feet. “Oh man. It’s been MUD CITY over here,” said Aimee Miklovic of Full Bushel Farm in Stevensville. The absence of snow has meant soggy fields and muddy boots, but the relief from extreme cold is welcomed by both animal and rancher alike.

At Blarney Ranch in Trego, the warm winter has also been easier on the animals. The lack of cold weather has increased access to forage, allowing for more grazing and less need for hay feeding. In December, the rain that would have been snow soaked directly into the unfrozen ground, into ponds on the ranch.

But those gains come with tradeoffs. While there has still been snow in Trego this season, the warm days melted much of it. “Now that the temps have dropped, there is zero snow cover and exposes grasslands to hard freezes,” says Blarney Ranch. “Snow is a great insulation for the forage, but also for wildlife, and we’re lacking both. Weaker plants, or shallower rooted forage will be adversely affected by this lack of snow cover.” For Blarney, the changes in snow accumulation will also have an effect on their surface fed creek, Brimstone, later in the year. “[It] will surely suffer from lack of mid-elevation snow levels (5000 feet) and will likely go dry by summer, unfortunately.”

For Montana’s fruit growers, the warm winter holds significant risks. A 10 degrees increase in average temperature may not seem like a significant change, but for plants, it makes all the difference. In order for many plants to survive winters, they go dormant, losing their leaves and diverting energy to their roots. This is triggered by cues like sunlight and temperature shifts. When the temperatures start to increase again, they take this as a cue that spring has arrived, and it’s time to wake up. 

According to Montana State University specialists, these warm temperatures pose a significant risk of widespread damage. Less because of the rise in temperature itself (although this does have consequences), but more because of the likelihood that the temperature will once again plummet. When plants think it’s already spring and start acting accordingly (moving out of dormancy), this process can’t be reversed. If temperatures once again drop to “normal” for this time of year, the tender shoots and buds of plants and trees are no longer protected.

At Aspen Grove Farm, honeyberries (also known as haskaps) are already showing signs of “bud break”, the time when dormant plants begin to swell and reveal new shoots and leaves. Normally, this doesn’t happen until later in the season. “I have not encountered a winter like this before, nor do I think there is one documented in any of the research that has been done in our state on this fruit crop,” says owner Melissa Allred. While honeyberries are famously cold-hardy, capable of surviving frosts and ice even while in bloom, timing still matters. Melissa is cautiously hopeful about the upcoming season.

That concern about timing is echoed at Swanson’s Mountain View Orchard in Corvallis, where some apple varieties have entered the silvertip stage. Similar to bud break, the “silvertip stage” is the very first stage of tree bud development in early spring. Once trees reach this point, their cold tolerance drops dramatically. “We’ll continue monitoring as temperatures change in the coming months so we know what kind of bud or fruit set damage to expect for our 2026 crop,” says owner Kendall Mouw. Should temperatures result in buds freezing, the consequences could be a catastrophic crop failure, similar to what was experienced by Montana cherry growers in 2024.

“For us, the amount of rain instead of snow and the lack of single digit and negative night time temps has made farming easy this Winter,” says Max Smith, Co-Owner of Winter Kissed Farm in Stevensville. The unseasonable amounts of green have been a welcome sight. “It feels like we won the lottery.” The varieties of greens grown at Winter Kissed are selected based on their ability to withstand humidity and cold temperatures. With the lack of freezing, greens like spinach are growing much faster. “[It] is actually problematic,” says Max. 

The spinach is planted in succession, allowing for staggered maturity over February and March, and a seamless harvest. But now, different plantings are reaching size consecutively, and creating pressure to harvest the greens before they get too large. When this happens, plants get crowded, creating a number of factors that could contribute to disease. “Luckily, we haven’t seen outbreaks of disease. But we’re monitoring what this year’s warm weather does as days lengthen,” says Max. “Our fear is that the amount of growing degree days we’re racking up is producing plant populations that are primed to flower and reproduce, which will cut short our harvesting in February and March.”

For now, producers are watching, waiting, and adapting, just as they always do in Montana. But as winters like this become less rare, the question shifts from how to respond, to how to prepare for a future where January no longer looks the way it used to.